With Memorial Day weekend behind us, the 2025 MLB season has taken shape. The exact outlines will change, but we're past the point where teams and observers can dismiss anything with the "it's early" wave of the hand.

That is true for the 30 teams at this first major traditional checkpoint of a baseball season, but it's also true for players, many of whom have seen enough action that from a statistical standpoint, their rates have stabilized. That makes this a perfect time to take our first glimpse at how the awards races are shaping up.

So as we check in with our initial Awards Watch rankings of the season, we see much that looks similar to where we left off in 2024. In fact, the AXE ratings that feed these rankings see a repeat in the American League MVP race and a back-and-forth battle for a repeat in the National League MVP race.

That's no surprise, as the first weeks of the 2025 season have done little to change the lofty appraisals of Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani, who continue to do historical things in mesmerizing fashion.

Yet there are new faces here, too, and those are perhaps even more fun because it's these kinds of emergent stories that add flavor to every new campaign. Can any of these new upstarts challenge the Judge/Ohtani dual dominance over the long haul?

Maybe not, but it'll be fun to watch them try, and the jockeying for position in the awards derby is already well underway.

American League Front-runner: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees (157 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners (137); 3. Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals (133); 4. Alex Bregman, Boston Red Sox (129); 5. Jacob Wilson, Athletics (128); 6. Isaac Paredes, Houston Astros (126); 7. Rafael Devers, Red Sox (124); 8. (tie) Jeremy Pena, Astros (123); Steven Kwan, Cleveland Guardians (123); 10. Jose Ramirez, Guardians (122)

Leader trend: At this point, Judge is competing against himself. Last season, Judge's 218 wRC+ ranked as the seventh best of the modern era by an AL or NL hitter. In other words, he put up one of the greatest offensive seasons in history. In 2025, he is on track to do even better and has a chance to top Barry Bonds' 2002 record of 244. He is leading the AL in all three slash categories (homers, RBIs and hits) and runs. He might soon start spurring an onslaught of "Can Judge really hit .400?" articles. The only thing that could derail Judge from unanimous support in MVP balloting is injury.

Biggest mover: For this first edition of Awards Watch, the "biggest mover" measure is based on 2024's end-of-season numbers. With that in mind, even though Detroit's Spencer Torkelson (118 AXE) didn't quite crack the top 10, he deserves mention for bouncing back from a dreadful campaign. Despite being selected first overall by Detroit in 2020, Torkelson entered this season just below replacement for his career. He has turned that around, posting 1.5 bWAR already, topping his 2024 homer and RBI numbers before Memorial Day and upped his OPS+ from 89 to 148. This is what the Tigers had in mind when they picked Tork.

Keep an eye on: Raleigh has staked claim to the title of baseball's best all-around catcher. Coming off his first Gold Glove, Raleigh has also been one of the game's best hitters so far. A pure three true outcomes batsman, Raleigh has been even better in those columns, upping his isolated power by homering at a near-Judgian pace, cutting strikeouts (a little) and pushing his walk rate to elite levels. He has also improved his on-contact numbers by replacing some of his ground balls with line drives, resulting in -- for him -- a batting average breakout (.254).

Keep an eye on: Raleigh has staked claim to the title of baseball's best all-around catcher. Coming off his first Gold Glove, Raleigh has also been one of the game's best hitters so far. A pure three true outcomes batsman, Raleigh has been even better in those columns, upping his isolated power by homering at a near-Judgian pace, cutting strikeouts (a little) and pushing his walk rate to elite levels. He has also improved his on-contact numbers by replacing some of his ground balls with line drives, resulting in -- for him -- a batting average breakout (.254).